It’s Only a Question of When | Nir Kaissar on AI, Private Credit and the Regime Shift Investors Miss

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Bloomberg Opinion columnist Nir Kaissar for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, AI, interest rates, private credit, small caps, and the risks investors may be underestimating. Nir shares his unexpected predictions for 2026, challenges the consensus on Fed rate cuts, explains why high profitability may be putting a floor under valuations, and offers a thoughtful framework for thinking about AI, concentration risk, and the future of public versus private markets. This is a deep dive into today’s most important investing debates, grounded in history and focused on what may come next.

Topics Covered

• Nir’s unexpected predictions for 2026 and why mass adoption of autonomous vehicles may arrive faster than investors expect

• Why the consensus on lower interest rates in 2026 may be wrong and what the two year Treasury yield is signaling

• The impact of tariffs, affordability pressures, and corporate margins on inflation

• Why high corporate profitability may support elevated stock market valuations even if returns slow

• The role of earnings growth in driving S&P 500 returns and why 2015 to 2024 may not repeat

• Is AI more like 1995 or 1999 in the internet cycle and what that means for long term investors

• The convergence of big tech companies around AI and the risks of a more zero sum competitive landscape

• Why companies staying private longer could hurt retail investors and distort public market indices

• Concentration risk in the S&P 500 and what it means for long term portfolio construction

• Opportunities and risks in small cap stocks, including the importance of quality screens

• The growth of private credit markets and the hidden risks investors may not see

• Why Treasuries may still be the cleanest shirt in the laundry during a crisis

• Lessons from 20 years of running strategies and what Nir has changed his mind about

Timestamps

00:00 Nir’s 2026 predictions and the rise of Waymo
05:00 Interest rates, Trump, and the outlook for Fed policy
08:40 Tariffs, inflation, and corporate margins
12:00 Valuations, profitability, and future S&P 500 returns
16:00 AI compared to the internet era and long term investing lessons
19:00 Public versus private markets and regulatory concerns
32:00 Concentration risk and the Magnificent Seven
39:00 Small caps, quality screens, and value opportunities
47:00 Private credit risks and default cycles
54:30 Nir’s investment philosophy and 20 year lessons